dang! how does SL drop 45 private sims in four days?
- July 15, 2012: 22426 private estates & 7117 Linden
- July 19, 2012: 22381 private estates & 7115 Linden
this is not a typical drop and probably just a combination of bad luck for Linden Lab
45 sims might not sound like much from 22,426 but if they were all full sims, that’s a drop of $13,275 a month from LL’s revenue stream. that pays two people’s salaries! (glassdoor.com shows salary data)
SL’s user base and total user hours have been on a steady decline for a few years now and the million dollar question is
why?
lots of people, self included, have all kinds of ideas why and from all those ideas there is truth. i know why i left and i like to think of myself as having been a highly valuable customer
some of the drop is pure attrition from people growing bored with it and moving on to the next online channel. some of it are people whose lives have changed – marriage, kids, divorce, new job, geographical move, etc
some of the drop is from people leaving Second Life for OpenSim
personally, i think that number is small. OpenSim grows steadily but is still tiny and i think some of the OpenSim growth is from people that would never have tried Second Life but do try OpenSim (like teachers with students under 16)
there certainly are demographics of people leaving SL looking for an SL-type experience and those probably go to InWorldz, 3rd Rock Grid, and Avination but i’d venture to guess that those people are less than 40% of OpenSim growth – maybe more like 20%? i dunno and many of you are far more socially active in virtual worlds than i am
i also don’t think there will be any mass exodus event for SL (unless they went under, but they are still making around $70 million per year – that’s not chump change). similarly, i don’t think there will be any colossal event, like a web-based browser or massive reduction in hardware/technical thresholds, that would make OpenSim experience growth like SL had in 2006
my two cents is that SL will continue to slowly, and steadily, decline and that OpenSim will continue to slowly grow
the difference, in my opinion, is that the growth in OpenSim will be longer lasting with people doing projects that last for years – both professionally like our Enclave Harbour and personally like Sarge’s Excelsior Station
with options out there like Kitely’s even more attractive pricing structure and the ease of running OpenSim on your own (even small advances like the Sim-on-a-Stick installer) – OpenSim continues to improve its software, and OpenSim options keep evolving into better ones =)
I agree SL is slowly getting smaller, and OpenSim is slowly getting larger. Like Kitely, I am doing my best to try and make SoftPaw contribute back to the opensim community in many different ways. I think with people like Kitely, SoftPaw, and Dreamland, opensim will continue to grow.
Timothy Vyper
21 Jul 12 at 12:14 am
Consider this a rather unsubstantiated suggestion, but the RFL sims have begun to go poof at this point. I noticed that each was “sponsored” so if they were actually paid for by private individuals, wouldn’t they count against that total lost for the time period mentioned?
Aevalle
21 Jul 12 at 2:22 am
I believe that the future answer to next sim’s falls will be Cloud Party xD
Kind regards.
Montnegre
21 Jul 12 at 4:09 pm
Change in the Second Life TOS (Terms of Service) in April 2010 turned the SL grid into a Walled Garden. This date coincides statistically with the end of growth and beginning of the slide downward.
The TOS changed everything by capturing all Public Domain works and other types of open licensing of products. Many creators simply stopped giving to the community, because SL put a copyright claim on everything they creators were making that touches the LL servers. This had a chilling effect on creators, and a chain reaction that still reverberates through the SL community.
In effect, by forcing that single TOS, the Linden Labs turned everyone in SL into their unwilling employees. Anyone who makes, uses, or sell items in SL since April 2010, basically is doing it for the benefit of the Lindens’ corporation.
Other SL attrition is due to:
1. Land cost of SL too high for average user.
2. Many other 3d Worlds and Games vying for same user base.
3. Dilution of the communities through early leaders and enthusiastic organizers leaving.
4. Less shine; not the new and exciting thing it once was.
5. Grind.
6. Arbitrary and capricious rules.
7. Silly build limits
The list goes on… but that is enough to chew on for now.
Lani Global
21 Jul 12 at 10:13 pm
So, is “7117 Linden” the mainland regions? One little hole in my knowledge of SL.
Breen Whitman
21 Jul 12 at 10:49 pm
Ooo, Lani,I might add my thoughts just off the top of my head. A nice list, so I’ll piggy back off your hard work.
Other SL attrition is due to:
1. Land cost of SL too high for average user.
Yes! Linked to your point 4 below too. No one wants to pay the big bucks now
2. Many other 3d Worlds and Games vying for same user base.
True dat. If one of them gains traction of a wider marketing campaign, a “king hit” as it were, gains could be very rapid to SL’s detriment.
3. Dilution of the communities through early leaders and enthusiastic organizers leaving.
Agree strongly. Linden missed the mark on this one when they started talking down to the power users.
4. Less shine; not the new and exciting thing it once was.
Yes. However I think this is affecting 3D worlds and Opensim too. The blast radius of 3D world apathy is quite large.
5. Grind.
Probably the only point I may “disagree” on. Not that I actually disagree. Grinding seems to be a “feature” that works. Minecraft being the latest example.
6. Arbitrary and capricious rules.
Yes, people get rules all day. Some freedom would be refreshing. Within limits.
7. Silly build limits
Is it not strange how easily people step down to constraints and seem to accept it?
And thanks for the list, it is insightful and thought provoking!
Breen Whitman
21 Jul 12 at 11:03 pm
hi Timothy – your intent with SouthPaw and contributing back means that you are in touch with what the OpenSim community wants and respects. i think that in just having an OpenSim-based grid and actually acknowledging users is a huge step forward (compared to Linden Lab’s seeming disdain for their user base)
Aevalle, i think your assumption is valid in general, regardless of the specifics for any set of sims – private sims are coslty and the economy of today does not help SL, especially when there are alternatives that get you 90% of the way there (OpenSim is not a panacea, but it is a viable option for many, but not all, residents)
hmm Montnegre, i have not looked at Cloud Party at all but your comment is the one that tipped my interest into delving into it a bit more (i absolutely have no idea what it is but do see it mentioned more and more)
spot on Lani! TOS changes back at the end of 2008 where among the reasons i pulled out of SL – the first one that said LL licensed your own work to you. they continued to refine that TOS and like you said, the later ones simply affirmed that more and more and clearly made the point that anything you made was for the benefit of the Lab and that they could take anything you do and use it for making their services better and without their need to thank you, pay you, or even acknowledge you
the land cost is too high for sure, but even $60,000 Cadillacs sell in poor economies – that whole perceived value thing (i drive a $14k car). high cost plus your point two of viable alternatives certainly do make it better for us avatars. point three is one i’d like to say i was a part of – at the height of my 19 sims estate there were 101 leased parcels/sims and not only was i a fair manager, but i blogged very positively for SL and my first 10,000 flickr pics were showcasing SL. they lost not only $3k a month but an evangelist and SL Mentor (when they had real official Mentors)
your point four is one that they added tarnish to by saying they’d reduce lag each year and that was a top goal – that should be a given and not “the” goal. i did not care about lag in 2006, SL made it seem like anything was possible – i assumed that improving the backend was just normal (like any software) and that new features and freedoms would be exiting – rather they curbed freedom . . .
no worries Breen, i don’t think any holes in LL knowledge matters in the world! yes, mainland is owned by Governor Linden and much of it sits abandoned – you can see the numbers on Tyche’s GridSurvey.com page. i had a few mainland parcels when i first started inSL but clearly it was not enough for me but they do work for many people and some mainland sims actually have great synergy – or they did at one point
ditto your thoughts on Lani’s list and one powerful thing about that list is that it is afrom what one could term a very active power user from both sides of the vw fence =)
Ener Hax
22 Jul 12 at 9:18 am
Just read a tweet by Tyche that SL has a net loss of 60 regions over the past week.
Sarge Misfit
22 Jul 12 at 3:54 pm
thanks sarge. tyches tweet sounds interesting. I will follow
Breen Whitman
22 Jul 12 at 7:07 pm
Tyche tweets the region stats weekly :-)
Sarge Misfit
22 Jul 12 at 10:26 pm
Land is just TOO expensive in SL. Private island costing $3,540 for a year of tier plus $1000 set up…. Or I can go to Opensim and pay $300-$400 a year rental and $35-$50 in set up.
No reason to use SL if you are doing a special project where you don’t need random people for your project to be viable.
I have recently gone back into SL, and I am enjoying it. I’m not having the texture rezzing problems and crashes I use to get so frustrated with. I met a few new friends…one is Gorean (hi Krista). (Oooo tabboooo) But she has been showing me around and letting me experience their areas, I’ve been RPing a bit and its been fun! This is a PRIME group of people that would be so much better off leaving SL and moving to opensim.
I’m told there are over 200+ sims dedicated to this lifestyle and over 20,000 people using them off and on. They are renting Sims from other SL members for over $365 a month for each sim or trying to save money renting low prim homestead areas. If they would transition to OS with a few good designers, builders, animators, and scriptors they would be saving around $71,000 a MONTH or $852,000 a year. And that’s if they rent from someone. With that number of Sims…they could just start up their own grid and save even MORE.
SL needs to lower prices. I know they could slow that decline or even gain new regions if they adjusted their pricing. SL will die a slow death, we can all see that, unless they start caring about their customers and product. I have a feeling they are milking it as long as possible and working on something else.
Azzura
23 Jul 12 at 1:13 pm
@Azzura While I have no involvement, Role Play Worlds, previously The Gor Grid has closed.
This piece may be of interest: RolePlayWorlds (Open Simulator based MMORPG grid like Second Life) closing
While I am not Role Playing I did have a look, and it was one of the finest grids I had seen.
A question is Why could RPW not take a share of those 200+ regions and their member from Second Life?
The RPW membership was free, and region rent was in the $19-$30 range. However, it seems price wasn’t a factor.
Breen Whitman
23 Jul 12 at 2:41 pm
I think the main reason they don’t leave is the fact they have so much money sunk into stuff in their inventory. I’ve never been a real RPer…just something I started this year in TERA so I have never looked into Open Sim RP grids.
Second reason would be lack of similar group decisions and opinions. So many differing thoughts on how the RP should be handled, the rules, which rule set, people that think they should get paid, others that feel it should be free. There is no good way to get everyone on the same page unfortunately.
While the prices are appealing – the thought of leaving $100s or $1000s worth of things you bought….houses, decorations, CLOTHES HAIR, skins, makeup…..and then starting over with nearly nothing, just holds people back.
I didn’t read the article you posted yet, but maybe RPWorlds was a little too cheap to stay afloat for how slow the transition to OS from SL is.
Azzura
23 Jul 12 at 2:52 pm
good point Azzura on money and time spent developing an inventory
that was one of the bigger challenges when i left SL – i had no building tools and no outfits and as trivial as a virtual wardrobe may sound, it was an important part of my identity
still today, i only have one outfit and doubt i will ever invest the time or money to build up outfits again
Ener Hax
23 Jul 12 at 3:56 pm
“Private island costing $3,540 for a year of tier plus $1000 set up…. Or I can go to Opensim and pay $300-$400 a year rental and $35-$50 in set up.” Exactly Azzura. And it can be done even cheaper than that (check out SoftPaws Estates).
And if a person is really hands on, they can take the money they would spend on SL and purchase one helluva fine system, run their own setup for so little that they could rent out a whole region and break even.
Sarge Misfit
23 Jul 12 at 8:02 pm
Oh, and regarding RPing, allow me to plug Misfit’s Index of RolePlay Sims or MIRPS :-D
http://excelsior-station.wikidot.com/misfit-s-index-of-rp-sims-mirps
Sarge Misfit
23 Jul 12 at 8:04 pm