one of my 2012 predictions last january 1st was that SL would lose 2,500 private sims. well, i actually predicted only 1,000 would be lost but revised that in april to 2,500
not because i am plotting for SL’s demise – they have brought that on to themselves to a certain extent with their seemingly blatant disregard for their customers. Linden Lab has control over how they respond to and engage with the community. from Rodvik’s tweets, he seems way more involved now than he was in late 2009 (with his @ssh@t sidekick Wallace Linden)
SL’s private sim demise is not all their own fault – the global economy went blah, the novelty of SL wore off (pretty much in line with the Gartner hype cycle), and OpenSim has continually improved and its community has grown (as well as there also being many flavours of OpenSim which make it almost like multiple products competing with SL)
in the last few months, SL private sim loss has accelerated – some of that is due to ed/non-profit discounts ending. summer is also traditionally slower as well (so private estates shed some sims in response to fewer customers)
with fall here, we should see an increase in SL concurrency but that is hard to predict. certainly some seasonal people see this as a chance to try out OpenSim and some will like it better and others will hate it
the revised prediction of 2,500 fewer private SL sims seems morbidly certain. on january 1st of this year there were 23,857 private sims – today there are 21,580
that’s a loss of 2,277 private sims so far this year! or an average of 8.3 per day!
at an average daily rate of over 8 sims lost per day, it looks like the yearly loss may be more on the order of 3,000 private sims