one of my 2012 predictions last january 1st was that SL would lose 2,500 private sims. well, i actually predicted only 1,000 would be lost but revised that in april to 2,500
not because i am plotting for SL’s demise – they have brought that on to themselves to a certain extent with their seemingly blatant disregard for their customers. Linden Lab has control over how they respond to and engage with the community. from Rodvik’s tweets, he seems way more involved now than he was in late 2009 (with his @ssh@t sidekick Wallace Linden)
SL’s private sim demise is not all their own fault – the global economy went blah, the novelty of SL wore off (pretty much in line with the Gartner hype cycle), and OpenSim has continually improved and its community has grown (as well as there also being many flavours of OpenSim which make it almost like multiple products competing with SL)
in the last few months, SL private sim loss has accelerated – some of that is due to ed/non-profit discounts ending. summer is also traditionally slower as well (so private estates shed some sims in response to fewer customers)
with fall here, we should see an increase in SL concurrency but that is hard to predict. certainly some seasonal people see this as a chance to try out OpenSim and some will like it better and others will hate it
the revised prediction of 2,500 fewer private SL sims seems morbidly certain. on january 1st of this year there were 23,857 private sims – today there are 21,580
that’s a loss of 2,277 private sims so far this year! or an average of 8.3 per day!
at an average daily rate of over 8 sims lost per day, it looks like the yearly loss may be more on the order of 3,000 private sims
>from Rodvik’s tweets, he seems way more involved than Humble was
I think you meant “more involved than M” was?
Han Held
30 Sep 12 at 5:51 pm
2277 sims = $683,100/month tier lost.
But potentially still liable for:
569 servers(assuming 4 sims per quad core machine) “on the books”.
14 full racks (40 1u height servers per rack.
32 sq/m warehousing space.
Thats a butt load of real estate.
Breen Whitman
1 Oct 12 at 2:22 am
“from Rodvik’s tweets, he seems way more involved than Humble was” I think “Humble” is an error. Mark or Philip?
Chuck Baggett
1 Oct 12 at 2:32 am
Well, they’ll have plenty of room for Patterns.
Over at HGBN Alex is busy telling us how successful is SL, but at the Linden Labe site, they are now “a developer of digital entertainment”, with two new products for preorder.
I think SL are just doing two simple and sensible things, building on their strengths, and following the money. Three things perhaps – putting some of their eggs in different baskets.
It’s a pity if they are giving up on the earlier Rosedale inspiration, but, nothing stays the same. IBM are still a big name, but they don’t make computers any more. Apple are pretty big too (!) but not from the same old line of desktop computers – they still have those but most of the money I believe comes from phones and tablets.
keith selmes
1 Oct 12 at 4:20 am
derr, you are right – i was thinking early Humble! Mark Kingdon is the other one but Humble was the one with Wallace and he was not involved in social media when he first started
i found him wholly unresponsive in the fall of 2009 but he is now active – guess it took him a while to figure out twitter!
thanks Chuck! it’s evidently all a blur to me! =p but now the post reflects it more accurately
Ener Hax
1 Oct 12 at 7:31 am
I’ve heard a lot of support for Linden Lab’s recent moves as an good example of sensible diversification. In a way though, that’s a bit like saying that both Hitler and Churchill were equally good statesmen because they both were dead-set against communism, had a fondness for dogs, and loved to paint.
I also hear the invocation of Apple used a lot, or Google even. See… it clearly makes sense to diversify right? The greats do it!
Back in the day when Apple decided to change their name from Apple Computer to just Apple, there was a similar outcry from the early adopters. What are they doing with our Apple? Why did they drop the word “computer” from the name? Where are they going with this?
In hindsight, Apple became the most successful company in the world by introducing iTunes, the iPod, the iPhone and more recently the iPad. Somehow, they managed to reinvent whole industries, while continuing to support and innovate the two products that built their company, the Mac and the OS. Would you have believed it before the fact? I doubt it. As it turns out, they knew better, and today, no one would argue that Apple is not “successful”. So, isn’t this just taking a page from a brilliantly successful company’s notebook?
Or, is it hubris?
Is Linden Lab, like Apple, ready to innovate beyond the platform they’ve built? Have they demonstrated that they have such an amazing success on their hands, with an oversupply happy customers that would fight tooth and nail to defend their honour? Can you really blame them for doing what other brilliantly successful companies have done to such great effect?
Well, it takes a hell of a lot more than one textbook tactic to make a successful business strategy.
To paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen when he so famously humiliated John Quayle in that televised VP debate: “Linden Lab: I knew Apple. I’ve been a fan of Apple since I first put my hand on a mouse. Apple is my friend. And Linden Lab, you’re no Apple.”
Canary Beck
1 Oct 12 at 10:18 am
@Ener when you mentioned the global economy I’m slightly confused. DSL, cable internet, and wireless broadband for those living in a rural area is bundled and cheaper compaired to a few years ago, even the FCC now has a broadband initiative to get internet in low income households. There’s nothing novel about SL novelty. There’s still a large number of people that have no idea of what it is. Most of the information from the press, ie Business Week and newspapers only have outdated content based on 2004-09. Even several of PBS’s series that include a part about second life aren’t updating whats occurred or changed since 2009. Novelty maybe if it’s in reference to someone that already has an account, but that’s only a small segment of the general population. As far as companies like AutoDesk, Coke, or Reuters that had a sim and later shut it down, either they were misinformed or someone convinced them to make a bad business decision.
@Breen that’s not a lot of real estate. Linden can significantly downsize and dump their warehouses on the real estate market, they already have additional unused space. All the San Francisco layoffs they did have empty cubicles, and the foreign offices they closed are empty.
joe
1 Oct 12 at 10:19 am
hi Canary – nice perspective and i like your analogies (i love analogies in general) and perhaps LL will strike gold with Creatorverse or Patterns – could be the next farmville (or SL)
they did make a huge splash with SL and time will tell if people will live their new products
they certainly are no Apple, but perhaps the newer products are more dear to Rodvik than SL is and if there is a passion there, that can make a huge difference (but i am not holding my breath and my two cents don’t account for much in the scheme of things) =)
hello joe! from that perspective, the one of broadband access become more available and affordable, you make a really good point! and with OpenSim . . . well, a presence in the virtual world can cost less than 10% what it did inSL. so in that regard, the downturn may have been a pressure that has allowed OpenSim to take hold. but Linden Lab’s prices are still a throwback to the days of web hosting at $100 a month vs. Hostgator’s $5!
and yes, they do have cubicle space and i am certain they are hoping their new products reduce that!
Ener Hax
1 Oct 12 at 10:30 am
sorry Han, your comment was held (dunno why). i messed up (well, i’ll blame my memory) and what i should have said was that at first, Rod was crap on the social media but now he seems to use it – thanks for pointing it out – i changed the post (maybe my confusion is a reflection of LL’s attitude toward customers?)
Ener Hax
1 Oct 12 at 10:54 am