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private sim loss slowing in Second Life

9 comments

last year’s loss rate of private sims was an average of 8.4 sims per day o_O

this year shows a marked slowing down of that rate. it’s not just the average rate that is lower, but the actual rate is slowing down month-to-month (the slope is leveling out, maybe)

last year’s rate was fairly steady month in and month out with very little variation of that 8+ daily loss rate but here’s how the rate has been this year:

  • the first 41 days of the year saw the same 8.4 daily loss rate as 2012
  • at 66 days into the year, that rate was 7.37
  • at 143 days in to 2013, it was 5.58
  • as of july 23, 204 days into the year, this rate is 4.9 sims per day

it’s still a loss of revenue any way you look at it BUT

is Second Life reaching a balancing point?

will there be some point, maybe next year, that Second Life sees a private sim growth rate of zero?

that would be the point where private sim loss is offset by new sims and a homeostasis is reached

time will tell and there’s no doubt that losing 4.9 sims per day is bad, but it isn’t as bad as it has been!

july2013loss

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written by Ener Hax

July 24th, 2013 at 10:44 am

posted in second life

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9 comments to 'private sim loss slowing in Second Life'

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  1. That supports my theory that the loss of sims is closely related to the First Life economic crisis. First Life economies are slowly recovering.

    Eric

    24 Jul 13 at 1:25 pm

  2. I wonder what is their break even point. Maybe 15,000 sims?

    Bruce Williamson

    24 Jul 13 at 1:35 pm

  3. And now the educational discount is back.
    I suppose that might help a bit.
    But would you put your head back in the lion’s mouth, when you know it bit you last time ?

    Keith Selmes

    24 Jul 13 at 4:01 pm

  4. “loss of sims is closely related to the First Life economic crisis”
    most likely

    Keith Selmes

    24 Jul 13 at 4:01 pm

  5. true, first life economics AND alternatives. the US economy wasn’t so great in 2006 and 2007, when Second Life was at its peak, but SL was the only option in town and the Gartner Hype Cycle applies to almost any technology

    good question on break even number – Linden Lab has a huge expense in physical servers. if they went cloud-based, they would reduce their overhead considerably (i have no idea how much but i bet 75% less for servers wouldn’t be too far off!)

    Ener Hax

    25 Jul 13 at 6:50 am

  6. Clarify me, but if they go cloud, mainland regions or private linked regions that did not had traffic would be shut down, so making the process of exploring using a vehicle useless!

    zzpearlbottom

    26 Jul 13 at 12:16 pm

  7. And in the last two weeks, the number of private sims went down by 158, according to Tyche Shepherd’s post dated 4 August 2013 on SL Universe. See http://www.sluniverse.com/php/vb/virtual-business/8523-new-sl-sims-past-week-85.html#post1804470

    Dot

    5 Aug 13 at 11:17 am

  8. yep, private island tally now 19832 as of 7 august 2013
    http://gridsurvey.com/

    chris haylerson (inworldz)

    7 Aug 13 at 3:33 am

  9. correct zzpearl, but it could be architected in a way that would minimise or maybe alleviate that all together

    top sims could stay online always and/or intermediary servers could spin up in a matter of seconds

    i’m not smart enough to figure that out (or it would be called Ener Life) but with the talent they have and the budget going to hardware, they could create a solution using cloud-based ideas

    after all, LL was incredibly innovative from 1999 to 2003!They just seem to be stuck in improving the 2003 offering and not doing outrageous innovation. my theory on that is that Philip was the spark and soul of SL and with him being gone, SL just kinda sits there

    i may be kooky, but i really felt a shift from how SL was in 2006 where anything seemed possible to the later 2008-2009 TOS garbage that peeved off so many creators =(

    Dot and chris, it’s amazing how fast the numbers seemed to drop in the last week!

    almost like the 50% discount offer had a negative event!

    i dearly loved SL and spent up to 40 hours a week in it (and I have a full-time day job!). i even mentored while paying the near $3000 USD tier – so clearly i thought SL was the most awesome thing ever

    i don’t want to see it disappear because i think that would have a negative effect on OpenSim

    but i also hate how LL has continued to do things that peeve off good people =(

    Ener Hax

    7 Aug 13 at 8:48 am

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