two year Second Life private sim graph from Tyche Shepherd’s GridSurvey numbers
- July 2010 monthly tier estimate – private sims – US$5.3 million
- August 2012 monthly tier estimate – private sims – US$4.6 million
over 3000 SL private sims gone in last 2 years
Wow.
When I shook the SL dust off my boots in 2008 they had well over 31,000 regions, now they have just a little over 22,000. That means they have lost over 9,000 regions since then. A loss of over 29% (almost 30%). That is serious.
This is a double-edged sword for OpenSim. It does mean that more people are coming to OpenSim and OpenSim based grids, which fuels the eventual mainstream acceptance of the Metaverse. And generally those are people who see the potential of OpenSim.
However, that also means that the die-hard SLers will become more aggressive and antagonistic toward us. We will be blamed for SL’s decline, that we “poach” SL for recruits. There will be claims that we exaggerate and over-inflate OpenSim’s capabilities, and the ongoing claims that OpenSim is “buggy” and full of content thieves will escalate.
Sarge Misfit
13 Aug 12 at 11:19 am
@ sarge… True, but as more of us are established outside SL, more of our friends come to check it out..
I think it’s a great business lesson for all (except those demonstrating the effect of poor customer service).
I’ve seen more and more avatars on TV commercials recently… that may help to ‘mainstream’ VWs too.
soror Nishi
13 Aug 12 at 11:26 am
Well i have mixing feeling about this!
Linden LAb for sure does not deserve any trust and credits, its community yes (See the Wigs for Kids donation made on the 2012 Ahir fair and so many others!).
And speaking of the only grid i tried, besides Sl, OSGrid, is by far as stable, even with most of the regions hosted on home computers, most of them old (but i guess not as old as LL servers!)
Still, i have to say that im loving Sl as it is now, with the improvements made on cross sims and still (Even if again, LL screwed with new tools that nobody asked, like path finding and mesh ground and Havoc whatever new version!) enjoying its physics engine and it’s mainland continents!
The problem is as always, a company that does not listen to its customers and treats them as they are a nuisance!
They can’t understand that there role should be only to insure residents would have all the means to do what they can and wish!
That’s is the big difference that is making users leave, some to join other grids, others to move to another experiences!
And its a shame to see, a grid like Second Life, be so trashed by the ones that should be doping all to preserve it, Linden Lab!
ZZ Bottom
13 Aug 12 at 1:24 pm
@Sarge “We will be blamed for SL’s decline, that we “poach” SL for recruits.”
I read on a forum a several years back, and the post was titled something like “Don’t use your SL name on OSGrid”. The discussion centered on anecdotal evidence of a Linden coming onto the Grid, and engaging residents from SL. There were some reports that this was resulting in a permanent ban in SL.
Was it factual? Who knows. But it did occur around the time that the old g-team(Linden enforcement team) was most active, and banned with impunity.
In the Linden restructure, the G-team was the first to go, and coincidently, ban penalties against residents plummeted.
It took that long to realize that amongst those in the over zealous G-Team’s crosshairs were sim owners paying $295 – $thousands in tier per month.
LL must have let out a Homer Simpson like “Doh!”
Breen Whitman
13 Aug 12 at 2:53 pm
Ener –
Second Life currently has 29,236 regions, according to Grid Survey:
http://gridsurvey.com/
Maybe you’re thinking of private estates? There, there are 22,114.
Meanwhile, as of end of July, my database shows 22,097 total regions on the 153 public grids (out of 200 active grids total) have have released their numbers.
I’ll have updated new numbers out in a couple of days.
Meanwhile, Linden Lab needs to seriously rethink its business model. And it looks like their thinking is “we’re a game company, lets turn out more and better games” rather than “we’re helping create the future — what does the future need?”
Maria Korolov
13 Aug 12 at 8:35 pm
yah, that’s why the title says private sims, the image says private sims, and the three mentions of sims say private sims =p
i only care about their private sims because that’s what i had and that’s the ultimate vote for how you like their service. their mainland sims are minor, imo, because it’s just like us with Enclave Harbour – i suppose we could run about 40 sims on 8 gigs of RAM
holy crap Maria!!! 22,000 OpenSim regions! dang, that is a lot because, as you know, there are many that don’t report or even show up on the radar! dang!!!
that is impressive because take my heavily used two SoaS sims that i use nearly daily – they get more building on them than many “real” sl sims! or the SoaS that Kate Booth’s kids use! there’s a dozen right there with very serious and very real use!
wow, Maria – i don’y know why your number is so sobering to me – i read your numbers but for some reason the parity of SL and OpenSim really hit home with me tonite!
well Breen, SL can cry about names – there for sure was an Ener Hax on SL and one now on OpenSim – but Ener Hax goes way back to the 1980s so they can byte me =D
Ener Hax
13 Aug 12 at 9:59 pm
A decline in any business is serious but when people in charge are oblivious to it, then it can become catastrophic.
I don’t understand the thinking of LL execs? Right in their hands they have a very powerful virtual world with huge concurrency that other VW’s would kill for! Yet treat it badly along with it’s user base.
I am guessing that they want to turn SL into a virtual game world i.e collect crystals in an adventure sim or fly an aircraft through some hoops for amazing points and rewards *tadaa*.
Eros Deus
13 Aug 12 at 10:17 pm
I don’t think Linden Labs understands what their greatest asset is or they wouldn’t abuse it so. No, it’s not the platform software! Far from it. Their greatest asset is the active resident population and the huge content base created by those same people.
LL is selling access to the resident population of Second Life and the content market they both create and trade in. People buy into and trade in that market to offset inflated tier charges or leach on the system for profit without ever taking part or contributing to the social community. Land Barons are advantaged to reap a profit due to discounts on buying and maintaining more sims than the average resident. The Lab can’t drop tier charges easily due in part to it’s deep commitment to Land Barons and its land-based business model in general.
LL would probably want to move towards a resident charging system and a video game type platform because those type of games get more users. Social platforms require more engagement with residents and LL has shown they don’t have the mind set or will to continue to manage what Phillip Linden has described as “broken” people living a rural existence. Clearly, he sees the resident population as Walter Mitty’s and a dysfunctional family of dreamers and whiners.
They may drop tier prices yet as the numbers of sims decline in order to stave off the final collapse of Second Life and it is probably why they are replacing their servers with higher capacity versions so they can squeeze 20 of more sims on each.
Still, at the end of the day, you know from bitter experience no corporation will care for a population like Second Life. All they will ever do is exploit it. No, it takes the residents themselves to care about their community and the Opensim Metaverse is perfectly suited to doing just that.
Opensim is open sources made by users for users therefor Opensim is truly build by residents for residents from the foundations up and not just from the gate of the walled garden up.
Gaga
13 Aug 12 at 11:31 pm
Ener —
You’re right, the word “private” is all over the place — I was thrown by Sarge’s comment right below it, where he compares 31,000 total sims and 22,000 private sims.
I’m about to start totalling the number of Opensim regions… wonder if we’ll surpass the total number of SL private sims this month?
Maria Korolov
14 Aug 12 at 12:04 am
it is nuts Eros and defies common sense but i am also an outsider and don’t know their inner workings
Gaga sums it up nicely and she is right about it not being the hardware or even the platform – all i know is that when i started inSL (like end of 2005) Philip was still the head honcho but he made it feel like we were all in this beautiful new thing and that anything was possible. i gladly paid my $1000 setup fees and monthly tiers to be a part of that vision
once Philip left, that “feeling” changed 100% – the TOS changed several times, it was no longer “your world, your imagination, and even the official Mentors were cancelled!!!
i don’t know if Philip was just a great salesman or if he really felt it should be for everyone – but his departure marked the decline of SL for me
Ener Hax
14 Aug 12 at 7:41 am
no worries Maria! i thought is was funny actually! =D
and that will be quite a significant milestone for OpenSim when full parity is met
i know outsiders will be blah, blah, blah, but there are so many factors that make that parity point very meaningful
OpenSim is no longer just a cheaper alternative to SL – it is a viable, and often far better, competitor
thanks Maria!
oh snap!!! i forgot to update my stats because of the PC build! i’ll send you an email soon . . .
Ener Hax
14 Aug 12 at 7:44 am
Sorry, my bad. I’ll blame a momentary glitch in the wetware :-)
Sarge Misfit
14 Aug 12 at 8:49 am
Okay, so total regions got to 31,687 in October 2008 and is now at 29,236, a decline of 7.7%. The graph can really tell the short story. http://gridsurvey.com/charts/econ0.png Looks like some recovery in 2011. Perhaps the addition of Linden Home regions?
Private regions for the same time period was 26,605 in October 2008 down to 22,114 now, a decline of 16.8%. The graph for this one shows a pretty steady decline, with a small recovery at the end of 2011. http://gridsurvey.com/charts/econ1.png
Still, that 16.8% overall decline is a significant number for any business to suffer. And its been pretty steady, so I don’t think LL can’t write it off as being due to any one event. Not even the recession as the decline has been going on despite the economic recovery of the various nations from which users come from.
Sarge Misfit
14 Aug 12 at 9:05 am
To be again, fully hoinest, i have to say that Second Life now, is worth on mainland only!
Having a private sim, alone, when you can have a house on the middle of the ocean and sail or fly form there, across more then 400 sims, is nothing that any open sim can offer right now!
SL allowed me and my love to do that, 4h straight trip across the oceans, no lag, no crashes!
That is now the beauty and the biggest advantage of SL!
To be able to (using a viewer that is based on the latest dev shining code) cross so many sims, on a motorized boat, without a crash and to watch and share it with a lot of residents that where on the places we traveled by, its a unique experience, that no matter what, only Second Life can give!
ZZ Bottom
14 Aug 12 at 10:09 am
@ZZ Bottom ” across more then 400 sims, is nothing that any open sim can offer right now!”
I would like to try that. Is there a region or ocean space I can TP too?
Breen Whitman
14 Aug 12 at 2:20 pm
i agree ZZ, sailing and flying is superior in Second Life – i loved flying a helicopter
Bullet Physics is being worked on and i hope that means it will be in OpenSim at some point. that would help a lot
Ener Hax
14 Aug 12 at 2:55 pm
I seem to have no problem driving my hovercar around a 20SRE megaregion, other than the fact that I am still tweaking the script. (its going to be amphibious like the one I had in SL *grins* )
Sarge Misfit
14 Aug 12 at 6:44 pm
Serge any can of us can do a mega region and drive (i did some cars that use Neb script and work pretty well, till we get closer to sim border, nothinf that a hidden prim can’t solve!)
The problem is crossing to a sim to another while using, not wearing, a car, a bike or whatever!
When i decided i was tired of LL and embraced OSG, i knew i would not have physics and for a few months it didn’t bother, as We are loving buiding, creating so many things and still finding that OSG was as advanced (Now i have to say even more, on issues like tlp speed, npc’s, mesh even simple stream of music and voice, that is getting terrible on SL)
During all these months, the only time i did go to Sl, was to race Nascar!
Then i found that there was some called the mainland, and believe it or not, for more then 2 years living on a homestead and visiting only private full sims (like the Cobra’s regions and so on) i never had heard of it.
I grabbed my bike and started 3 months ago, to crash after 4 sim crossings, always after 4, in any of the continents!
I despaired and decide, not to quit Sl for good, but to learn how to use a v3 viewer, and it was not easy for some that refused to use more then Imprudence and pre mesh phoenix!
Firestorm made me crash as much as phoenix, so i decided to give a try on a quite unique viewer, Niran’s, at the time the v1.38 version!
Suddenly i was crossing sims as mad, without crashes, and start to enjoy some of the features that makes travel without tlp an amzing experience!
Started creating my 1st full perm sailing boats and learn how to sail and the fun of it!
Same with planes, starting with a small and ending driving a Zeppelin of 64 meters long!
And the fact that you found users along the roads or skies or seas and, as i cant resist, share with them my creations (some sailing boats, a few motorized boats and a few planes)!
The sensation of finding that it is possible to sail from the Blake seas, via Nautilus to Gaeta, passing by Corsica, the struggle to pass, where the only way is to cross a sim where its owner, made it private or placed security orbs (Do you know that there is a group of residents that are trying to teach sim owners that have land near the seas, to allow them to be open to any that wishes to sail or fly?), the hassle of having to see the map and all that and still giving commands to my Soul mate that was at the helm, to see the time pass and when finnaly come the moment (A visit to a friend’s house at gaeta from ours at Blake sea, without a tlp, using only a motorized boat we made), the amazing pleasure of feeling we made it!
That is something that LL can’t even realize how precious it is, as they decided to roll out the regions with the new path find code, causing more damage any open sim physics engine will ever do, to their user base!
And it is so sad, cause we all know that we can have mega regions, but all we wish to do is just to sail arounf the oens we have already and they are just so much more amazing then any on SL, just think of 2000 diff sims, linked together, without vendors, publicity, orbs or being private!
ZZ Bottom
15 Aug 12 at 12:31 pm
One possible solution is AuroraSim. Variable regions that can then be parceled to whatever sizes may be desired, much like SL’s Mainlands. Infinite regions that allow travel from one region to another across the “no man’s land” that currently exists between differently owned regions in SL and OpenSim.
The big problem is when regions are on different servers. It takes a moment to pass the data from the one to the other, which is what causes the lag, rubber banding and such.
I’ve not been in SL for 4 years, so I do not know the state of region crossings in SL, but it was noticeable then. In OpenSim and AuroraSim, the state of development is behind SL. But region crossings is an issue that will be fixed, with time. All it takes is for people to work on it and to contribute back the coding.
I’m not arguing with you. Driving the roads of SL is the one (and only) thing I miss. But I can live without it knowing that I will eventually enjoy doing so in the future. In fact, once Created Worlds is open people can come and visit Excelsior Station, with its own roads to drive along, sand dunes to tear up and open waterways to sail.
Sarge Misfit
15 Aug 12 at 1:35 pm
I have to confess that i would love to give a try on Aurora Sim but i got so confused on their login page that i quit doing so, perhaps i should try again, still i know that i can’t be on 2 places at once as i miss to much OSG and still refuse to go there for most of times due to my SL life now!
Some can, as my soul mate, to be in 2 places at once, i really need to be focused in one only, i wish to be honest, that the one i would be 100 pct involved was OSG (If one thing i cant forget is the help of OSG community when i was a newbie and a pain in the A** to a lot!).
But some things are as they are, i know for a fact that when i got involved i’m 100 pct there, as i was for a few months on OSG and now back on SL and instead of pissing Dan or White star I piss LL, lol!
ZZ Bottom
16 Aug 12 at 11:18 am
ZZ, I would normally recommend going with an offline instance to mess with and following the instructions I have posted for adapting SoaS to AuroraSim, however, I just discovered a couple of days ago that the devs have changed the setup by introducing GUIs, so I have to update the info I have on my site. Its going to take me a few days to get to that. So, if you do want to try out AuroraSim, bear with me until I get all the new stuff figured out or (part advice, part plug here) you can apply for Beta membership on Created Worlds http://createdworlds.com/beta/
Sarge Misfit
16 Aug 12 at 3:31 pm
Well, I am strolling the web today because today is the second time LL decided to charge my paypal account to pay for tier. I wanted to know if there would be a way to temporary pause a few of my sims. I own 4 sims that are open to the public and lots and lots of people are using them for free. The regions are Japan Edo time based and host several roleplay groups and a lot of residents. My market Hosoi Ichiba is paying for all 4 sims + advertisements + occasional gifts to new residents. I am also using SL as a toolbox to design and proof my RL Japanese themed designs.
Since the start of the world wide economic crysis we seem to be in I, like many others, noticed a decline in sales. However my Ichiba was still going strong up to the start of this holiday season. Seems people are finally running out of “playmoney”. Maybe after the summer my sales will start growing again but I have the odd feeling it won’t;-(
If my sales doesn’t recover I will need to close down my sims and SL will loose again 4 wonderful free landmarks. I know I am not alone in this. Already a lot of great places closed down to never return and a lot will follow. The idea I have to let down all those people that depend on the scenery that I created over the years will make me so super sad;-( For what I know there is no way I can preserve complete sims to reerect them on the LL grid or elsewhere later.
I think LL needs to rethink their business strategy. Like some people here said, LL has a great tool and nowadays their servers and viewers are very stable. If LL should decide to lower tier and startup fees I am sure new people will start using SL and people that moved away to, for instance Open Sim like environments, will come back to SL. I am afraid though that will never happen.
For example; a few months agoo I contacted LL to talk about pricing and possible discount on 24 private sims because I was in the race for a very big RL contract rebuilding a complete town and zoo in the Netherlands. (my client didn’t want to use Open Sim) The kind of project that could put SL on the map again as a serious tool and virtual environment. The answer however was NO! LL didnt even want to think about it!
I am simply not able to fund the 4 sims (1200 USD a month) from my RL income at the moment. Saying that makes me think about how much I payed to SL in tier and commision, etc. over the last 6 years… it must be in the region of USD 150.000+
So that leaves me with one option only. Praying sales will recover after the summer so my friends, residents and visitors can keep enjoying our little corner in SL.
For all people riding the same boat I would like to say; keep up the faith!
Kind regards,
Amiryu Hosoi
Amiryu Hosoi
17 Aug 12 at 2:59 am
hello Amiryu, i am so sorry to hear about your possible shutting down
it is very expensive to run four sims (ABC TV network is closing their sim now). i had 19 sims but it was an estate an generated enough to break even, until LL changed the HOmestead sims, so i understand your sorrow
that said, i wonder how you would do with either a Kitely world or with hosting connected to OSgrid?
OSgrid is growing quickly (see Maria’s posts on HyperGridBusiness.com) and you could easily have 4 robust sims with a setup like we have. we use SimHost and for under $180 a month you could have your own dedicated server. we run 16 sims with ours but you could run only four and have many people visit at once
good luck with your decisions and know that options do exist =)
Ener Hax
17 Aug 12 at 7:47 am
Hey Ener, moving to OS grid is not an option, I am not going to recreate 4 full scenery sims;-( Took me years to to built them. Maybe for my pavilion design I could give it a try. Thank you for your kind reply;-)
Ami
Amiryu Hosoi
17 Aug 12 at 5:28 pm
i understand – leaving my 19 sims was hard becasue of all the work i had put into them (ther is an illegal viewer that lets you export entire sims)
it took me two years to build our new sims in OpenSim – it is a hardship without a doubt
i am so sorry to see your sims go, your photos on your website are so beautiful
Ener Hax
18 Aug 12 at 10:49 am
Well we did make our 5 sims from scratch in 3 months time on OSGrid and not a bad job on that, lol, but even if we don’t use them anymore (SL boat and plane builds our joy now;), just the simple fact that we have our oars, that we could export them (one of the regions at least) to Kitely for free and we can host them on our private grid via Diva Distro, is moere then worth to give it a try!
Ami, be sure that You will be amazed by what you can do and discover on OSGrid alone, much more when you will use hyperglide and found other grids:)
ZZ Bottom
21 Aug 12 at 5:43 am
I wont be able to rebuild what I have in SL in 3 months. I work alone and there is just to much detail;-( Beside that I just don’t have the time. A day only has 24 hours…
Ami
Amiryu Hosoi
22 Aug 12 at 3:30 pm
[...] august 13th, i posted a graph showing the loss of 3,000 private sims IN SL over the last two years. that’s an average of about 125 sims a [...]
375 private SL sims gone in one month?!? at i live in science land
1 Sep 12 at 11:33 am
And i think this is only the start,
Private regions was perfect for people to rent to start them own club, mall, or whatever, they rent out stores, and as long the stores are filled they can pay the tier for the sim and may be have a bit spare linden dollar,
Now more promotion from marketplace , easy to start up you’re own businesses with all full perm templates and cheap mesh now , any one can buy and try to sell, only now they not start a store in world, why pay rent for something i can get free, my own store on marketplace, prize wars going on , they want sell but its not that easy, so lower, lower and more lower , top sales items are all 0 linden items or demo’s, off-course linden lab get his profit of marketplace sales, but is it as much as lost sims? killing in world game because clubs cant pay them tiers any more so leave, marketplace get overloaded, cant even find you’re own items back in times , alot same items, same mesh dresses only loads of stores that sell them only diff color or pattern, but ask how much of them have a in world store…uhhh…..
ok its politic , and different people , different thoughts, but im a bit worry, last month , and i dont no if it had to do with the bad storm above USA or marketplace top list items , i dont no, but i lost 25% of my sales , we all can loose and 1 month more or less, but my sales was stable for 4 years climb up slow and than suddenly a drop in 1 month of 25% ???, All i want to say : something is going wrong, and i hope the answer be found before its to late.
Greenie
15 Dec 12 at 12:02 pm
hi Greenie, i don’t think any answer will turn it around fast enough
it would take some serious soul searching by Linden Lab to alter the course they are on. tier is just too expensive
if LL went to the cloud, they could reduce tier and increase prims. i don’t think LL has to be as inexpensive as Kitely, but $295 a month for 15,000 prims is just so excessive
you can have 20 sims, each with 100,000 prims for $35 a month with Kitely – that’s hard to argue against
Ener Hax
15 Dec 12 at 3:50 pm
sl is dying!!!!!!!!!!!
Get the hell out of there while you have time AND MONEY TO SAVE!!!!
LOTS OS ABANDONED LANDS EVEN PRIVATE SIMS…..
Bye bye SecondLife
Hello OPEMSIM!!!!!
drfurn
14 Apr 13 at 10:36 pm