obligatory retrospective on 2012 predictions


at the end/start of each year, many bloggers look back at their predictions for the year and make new ones for the coming year

i’m no different and here it goes the retrospective part. predictions will be tomorrow’s post and certainly won’t be as many! =D

here are the 2012 predictions i made (in green) with today’s notes:

  • The Overte Foundation will be up and running – bummer, i was hoping for this but it’s a small group of people and they did a lot of work on OpenSim code instead
  • OpenSim will see its 0.9.0 release (or a new name via Overte – maybe a beta?) – gee, i missed this by a mile, we are on 0.7.4 currently
  • Hypergrid protocol will be more open to version differences – lots of work on this one, but a  permission locked down version has not yet implemented
  • BulletX physics will be the default OpenSim physics engine – Robert from Intel has put in countless hours and is actively working on it now, but it’s not implemented officially yet
  • InWorldz will continue to grow at a greater rate than other OpenSim-based grids to over 1200 regions – so close! as of the dec 15th stats, they have 1168 regions
  • A yet-to-be-created niche community grid will explode onto the scene and garner media attention – lots of niche communities came into play, and some poofed, but none grabbed the media attention i had hoped for but . . . Maria writes yesterday that Grid Numbers have doubled! o_O
  • Kitely will become a mainstay and see serious big adoption – well, we adopted it and that was actually a surprise to me. their multi-region worlds, excellent cost, and high performance won us over
  • OSgrid region numbers will grow by 30% 50% to 15,000 (jan 17) - i dinked this one and was thinking all OpenSim grids, OSgrid has 6731 regions and all OpenSim type grids combined have over 20,000 regions
  • Sim-on-a-stick downloads will be 4,500 (a drop from 2011′s 6,000+) – there have been about 17,000 downloads since it went live and about 10,000 this year
  • SpotOn3D will patent the entire internet, including QWERTY keyboards – overall, they were quiet this year but i lease my mouse from them =p
  • Third-party viewer development slows down, indirectly due to LL investing in some non-SL “products” – LL put a huge damper on viewers but some viewers made commitments to OpenSim, such as Firestorm which has an office on OSgrid
  • No browser-based viewer, a la plug-in or WebGL, will be released – sadly true, but Lumiya for tablets works quite well
  • Second Life user hours will drop to 90 million or less – LL doesn’t share this anymore, but looking at the concurrency chart below by Tateru Nino shows steady decline to levels lower than 90 million
  • Second Life private estates will decrease by 1000 2,500 sims, double what they did in 2011 (jan 17) – i later updated this to 3,000 and came close – as of yesterday, SL has lost 2865 private sims
  • Enclave Harbour will go live and subQuark’s science field trip book, or eLearning, will be published! =) (jan 17) - double doh! neither happened! renewed focus by both of us may mean that Enclave Harbour goes live, to a limited audience, in the spring and the book comes out in summer *fingers crossed*
  • iliveisl’s Flickr stream will hit 15,000 pics and 365 blog posts will go up - snap! there are 14,666 pics as of now (maybe i’ll take a ton of Hax Nuit tonite!) and 433 blog posts! who’s OCD now?!? *does the spanky dance*=p
  • Ener won’t get a new pair of underpants but will make a new pair of boots – bah, no new underwear and no new boots! =(

Happy New Year, especially to our Aussie OpenSim power users who are already in the future!

wow, 2013 eh . . . 


Second Life Median Concurrency charted by Tateru Nino

Twitter Tumblr Digg Reddit Stumbleupon Delicious Facebook Plusone Pinterest Linkedin Tumblr Posterous Snailmail

written by Ener Hax

December 31st, 2012 at 9:19 am

posted in OpenSim,virtual worlds

tagged with

4 comments to 'obligatory retrospective on 2012 predictions'

subscribe to comments with RSS or trackBack to 'obligatory retrospective on 2012 predictions'.

  1. not too bad – considering 2012 was a year of unknown variables creeping into everyone’s equations. thanks for all your wit, hard work (you call it OCD, i’ll take the diplomatic path) and dedication to OpenSim. looking forward with great expectations to the official opening of Enclave Harbour! seeing it grow and evolve has been an inspiration to me, and i’m sure many others as well.

    all my best to you and subQuark in the coming year and to the entire OpenSim community. i also extend the sentiment to friends and colleagues in Second Life. there are still a lot of good, talented people there making the best of what is left and that sort of dedication deserves a nod and a wink.

    be well.


    31 Dec 12 at 11:42 am

  2. thank core, i appreciate that very much (and so will subbie, he’s more sentimental than me! lol, he tears up on TV commercials more than i do!)

    Enclave Harbour should work well with its workbook (i’m doing the InDesign work). the book walks you through each field trip location plus there are additional activities such as “cranes”, where some of the cranes of Enclave Harbour serve as the illustrations for explaining simple machines

    i have not been inSL for over two years but there are indeed many talented people there =)

    a Happy New Year to all people – virtual and otherwise! =)

    Ener Hax

    31 Dec 12 at 1:05 pm

  3. Happy New Year Ener!

    Love your work and following your blog.

    Looking forward to the virtual adventures in 2013.

    Stan from Sydney Australia.

    Stanley Yip

    31 Dec 12 at 4:51 pm

  4. Happy New Year Stan! i hope to see some even more innovative uses from you, and fellow Aussies, this year! =)

    Ener Hax

    2 Jan 13 at 11:36 am

leave a reply - add your thoughts

you can use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>