less that 18,000 private SL sims by year’s end?


44 days doesn’t make a trend but with a daily loss rate nearly identical to the entire 2012 average, it may not be too far off to speculate that SL will have around 18,000 private sims by the end of the year

the last time SL was at 18,000 private sims was the summer of 2008


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written by Ener Hax

February 14th, 2013 at 3:04 pm

posted in second life

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7 comments to 'less that 18,000 private SL sims by year’s end?'

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  1. How does it look over 409 days, though? (365+44)

    After all, a trend doesn’t just start at the beginning of a new year, its an ongoing thing

    Sarge Misfit

    14 Feb 13 at 4:32 pm

  2. “44 days doesn’t make a trend but with a daily loss rate nearly identical to the entire 2012 average”

    Yes, its a valid prediction.

    I believe Lindens will have a critical point. At that, they will introduce significant discounts.

    If they coordinate and dump mainland into a conglomerated area in a process similar to the handling of Adult land, they could divest of server cost.

    It’ll be a double win for LL.

    And many residents will be pissed. Lindens will enjoy that. Its a triple win!

    Breen Whitman

    14 Feb 13 at 11:37 pm

  3. I think the loss will slow down a bit now since a lot of educational sims were shutdown after the educational rebate expired. But that was a really severe loss for LL and SL as a whole. We managed to get quite some students into being active residents here – in the end they had to spend the Lindens they earned in our projects ;-) So we’re moving on to greener grass now ;-)

    Orlando Frequency

    15 Feb 13 at 1:26 am

  4. Hello Ener Hax!
    I was browsing your photos on Flickr and noticed (appreciatively) that you were appreciative of my photos. Thank you. Best wishes to you in this new year! You made a good impression on Henrik Lillienthal, the Dane in London, who is my online data quality colleague; I read your insightful comment on his blog, and was proud to call you friend. That was awhile ago… I hope you remember. If not, this will seem like a very bizarre non sequitor!

    Anyway, to get to the point: I am dismayed by your findings about the decrease in SL sim count. I use the same metric to gauge Linden Lab status, though not as diligently as you. It makes me feel sad to see this downward trend confirmed. The future is uncertain of course, but it isn’t encouraging. I often run across people online for whom SL is, or was important (whether or not they are willing to openly acknowledge their fondness).

    As Orlando said, educational users have lost enthusiasm, although SL remains just as useful for such purposes (certainly as much or more so than those MOOCs). IBM seems to have shifted interest from SL to other things, but I could be mistaken, would prefer being mistaken. I hope Linden Lab survives.

    I’m sorry! This is excessive in length. I’ll look for you on Google+. I am there sporadically, as Ellie K.

    Ellie Kesselman

    15 Feb 13 at 3:10 am

  5. “I believe Lindens will have a critical point. At that, they will introduce significant discounts.”

    Or, perhaps they will introduce new methods of pulling in revenue. I’ve seen several posts/discussions in other blogs discussing ways to do that. One was to place limits on inventory, requiring premium membership for increased or unlimited inventory. I think another was to tie the number of products one can place on the SL marketplace with the number of square meters owned of land inside SL. Can’t remember what else. Last one i read was on NWN.

    The comments, many of them, seemed to support these things. But I was a premium member, and i eventually came to the conclusion that it was simply to horridly expensive. Even if they dropped tier by half, it would still be too expensive for me now. I just sort of lost interest.

    Ohn Lang

    15 Feb 13 at 12:00 pm

  6. I too was a premium member of SL, but it was not just expensive, but a rip-off. SL, by and large is predicated upon greed, and LL, for whatever reasons seem to be busy shooting themsleves in the foot. I don’t know how many educational organisations took advantage of SL’s educational discount, but ending that discount looks a lot like financial suicide.

    Further squeezing people by introducing restrictions will surely just make their market smaller. Some will come to OpenSim virtual worlds, but the awareness amongst the average SL resident of the OpenSim Metaverse is extremely low. SL is also highly social, which is something that the SL user who visits an OpenSim virtual world immediately notices – the lack of anyone to interact with for much of the time.

    As Ohn Lang suggests, most will simply lose interest in SL, and most likely in virtual worlds entirely.

    Susannah Avonside

    18 Feb 13 at 8:10 am

  7. […] Valentine’s this year i projected that Second Life could end 2013 with fewer than 18,000 private sims and that projection still holds […]

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