a look at my 2011 predictions:
- “there’s enough room for Second Life and anything else [OpenSim]“ – not much of a prediction except to say that SL did not disappear, nor did OpenSim =)
- “InWorldz should continue to grow” – way to go out on a limb eh? i qualified that one with saying they’d grow if the owners kept doing what they were doing. well they certainly have! and the have been active members of the community in many ways, like when Tranq helped me get Imprudence running – that spoke volumes to his character
- “people will look for alternatives . . . Linden will keep dumping on people” – geez, i am timid on my predictions, i better put on my game face for 2012 =)
- “Kokua looked promising . . . but has gone silent . . . ” – well, Jacek is not there any longer and development seems to have slowed, so is Kokua done? =(
- “OpenSim should see some neat projects . . . as educators and not-for-profits [leave] Second Life” – yep, lots of neat projects out there, some i’ll write about from comments to a post last week asking for your stories. if you have a neat story, just drop a comment saying you do and i can see the email you commented with and drop you a note. 2011 saw over 6,000 downloads of sim-on-a-stick and Beacara’s Art Gallery art catalogue was a pretty nifty use of OpenSim. there have been many more and great freebies like Nebadon’s 4 sim campus, Linda Kellie’s site, and OpenSim Creations are awesome projects
- “educational and business OpenSim deployments will remain small” – as i had stated on that one - of course they will, that’s the beauty of OpenSim, anyone can have their own region or grid. running a big grid is tough and needs lots of resources but something like our 16 region grid only needs a person that can install OpenSim and then very little maintenance (i mean come on, if i can keep it running for a year and a half, then anyone easily can)
- “browser-based access . . . not counting on it” – easy prediction, making this happen is a pretty big technical challenge and it’s amazing to me that we have choices with regular viewers, creating a plug-in or non-application viewer is a big task
- “Second Life will putt along . . . i don’t foresee a new CEO making any massive changes” – no surprise there. there was the new and exciting Realms game introduced (sarcasm) but nothing massive and a continued slow decline in user hours and private sim ownership
- “OpenSim . . . will see more improvements, especially to hyper gridding” – indeed it has (like that awesome hypergate Ener made yesterday, w00t!). kidding aside, the OpenSim developers made lots of feature enhancements and OpenSim has become more stable and can be run better than SL with the right hardware
- “new [OpenSim] grids may turn up [like] niche grids” – that’s a tough one, while new niche grids did pop up, it seems like we are approaching a balance of commercial offerings out there with some new ones coming on and others closing. it’s a supply and demand thing
- “OpenSim . . . will continue to see the adoption as private . . . grids more analogous to modern websites” – when i wrote that i was thinking in terms like our Enclave Harbour so i was wrong in that. i thought there would be a bunch of server hosted independent grids, but we didn’t even go hypergrid in 2011. what did happen is that people hooked up to the OSGrid as regions from their home machines. that makes sense in hindsight because it’s far less expensive. if we factor Kitely into this and think of those as private grids (they are) then we did see a lot of people go this route (kudos to Kitely!) =)
overall, my predictions were so timid that i can’t call myself a soothsayer or charge $5 a palm to read your future. but then, i like to give stuff away for free so maybe my outlook as a self-employed gypsy is not such a good career move!
stay tuned for a post of predictions, maybe even tomorrow! lol, i can’t even predict that! =D but i do predict i’ll reach 1,500 blog posts (should be possible, this is number 1,498!)
hope your head doesn’t hurt too much from late night New Year’s Eve festivities and OMG! it’s 2012! =)
last year's pic - clearly my prediction script is weak! =D
My crystal ball says Will Wright on the board of directors will have a strong influence on SL in 2012.
Already LL is planning on implementing AI & path-finding for building actual NPC’s. And has a new SL developer program coming up.
It’s not over yet. Mesh will also be getting key-framing for animations.
FireFox Bancroft
1 Jan 12 at 9:57 am
i think SL will stick around but i agree with you other comment on cost
y9ou really need your won sim to have the freedon necessary and $295 is really very expensive for any hobby, expecially something computer related
my PC is almost 5 years old and cost me about two months tier. imagine if my pc cost $295 a month? no one would be on computers!
Ener Hax
1 Jan 12 at 11:07 am
Thank you Ener :-)
Let’s hope this new year will bring with it many more improvements to the OpenSim ecosystem… I know we have a few planned ;-)
Ilan Tochner
1 Jan 12 at 11:48 am
Personally, I think OSgrid is the one to watch in the coming year. Think back how over 4500 sims got purged early in 2011 and and yet the grid has recovered massively with now over 10,000. Same time Avination and gone down and InWorldz recovered. All the while Kitel has just grown but then they still are not charging. I think SL will struggle in 2012 but don’t write them off yet!
http://metaverse-traveller.blogspot.com/
Anyway, I posted my predictions for 2012 and my gaffs for 2011 *laughs*
Happy New Year
Gaga
1 Jan 12 at 1:00 pm
w00t Gaga!!! =)
great observation on OSGrid growth. once we go hypergrid, we will have some “open house” hours so we’lll be part of it too! =)
i can’t wait to read your predictions =)
Ener Hax
2 Jan 12 at 8:04 am
Wonderful news Ener. I can’t wait to visit via hypergrid. Been doing a lot of traveling from my sim in OSgrid lately trying to figure out just how big the open Metaverse really is. It’s kind of a mission now, lol.
I have a big review of OSgrid coming up in the next few days once I sort through all the pictures of places I have been and grids visited. Lots of pics but can’t use them all!
Your gate gets my vote, BTW. Leonardo’s man in a circle is just the ticket but I thought he had a third leg?
No, I’m not being rude!
*chuckles to herself*
Gaga
2 Jan 12 at 10:39 am